Polymarket and Kalshi are online betting platforms turning military strikes and regime collapses into speculative contracts. Insiders from the Trump administration are making fortunes off secret information. Two Democratic lawmakers want to put a stop to it.
Fatal Birth
Shayne Coplan launched Polymarket in 2020. Its bets run on the blockchain and use the USDC cryptocurrency. Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara founded Kalshi in 2018, where wagers are placed in U.S. dollars. Crowds buy binary contracts—yes or no on a given event. The price reflects collective belief.
By 2025, twenty-seven billion dollars are circulating. War has become an asset.
Maduro Captured, Torres Strikes Back
An unknown account places a $32,000 bet on Polymarket: Nicolás Maduro must fall before the end of January 2026. Hours later, U.S. forces capture the Venezuelan president. The bettor walks away with $436,000.
Ritchie Torres, the Democratic representative from New York, smells scandal:
“The most corrupt corner of Washington, D.C. may well be where prediction markets meet the federal government—where insider trading and self-enrichment are no longer theoretical risks but proven dangers. Government is not a for-profit business; it’s a public trust. It doesn’t belong to elected officials—it belongs to the people who elect them.”
Turning words into action, Torres introduces a bill in January 2026: The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. The bill bans federal officials, elected representatives, and executive-branch employees from trading in prediction markets related to public policy or political outcomes when they hold non-public information
Senator Chris Murphy Accuses Trump Administration of Insider Trading
Iran Explodes, Murphy Counterattacks
In late February 2026, American airstrikes hit Iran. A trader named Magamyman turns $87,000 into $553,000 overnight. Classified military information has clearly leaked.
Suspicions point to Donald Trump Jr., who invested in both Polymarket and Kalshi. Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut is enraged by these profits :
“The war with Iran is a disaster. It enables a new form of corruption inside the White House. It’s tied to these prediction markets. There was unusual and suspicious activity—people betting on a war with Iran on Friday, and it broke out Saturday. At a time when Americans are struggling to pay for groceries and gas, while this war is driving prices even higher, it’s outrageous that people connected to the White House are cashing in.”
Antiwar Polls
Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted from February 28 to March 1, 2026, support this view.
43% of Americans disapprove of the strikes.
60% fear a prolonged conflict.
67% worry about rising gas prices.
Even among Republicans, many are hesitant.
In Washington, the Roman Colosseum Circus comes alive again. The ancient people gave a thumbs-up to save a gladiator. They gave it down to kill him. On screens, a click does the same. Yes to striking. No to peace. Lives are turned upside down. Insiders take the cash.
Jean-Claude Djian
Félix Magazine 
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